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Will 2020 be the warmest year of the instrumental record?
Normally a record year is as a result of a strong El Nino as well as the underlying warming trend. Whilst we have seen a weak event in recent months, I wouldn't have expected this to be sufficient to break the record.
Yet the year is running warm so far, with a new record a distinct possibility.
https://www.noaa.gov/news/june-2020-tied-as-earth-...
So could there be something else going on? Could there have been a reduction in Global Dimming from aerosols, as a result of reduced emissions during lockdowns; dimming that would normally offset some of the warming?
Of course, one warm year is neither here nor there; it's the underlying warming that gives cause for concern. But for those who are interested in the detail ...
How warm do you think 2020 is likely to be and, if it does break the record, what do you think the main factors will have been?
Thanks in anticipation ...
I noticed the deluded troll Yahoo Joker called by, with three of his sock accounts, to pursue his delusional fantasy that, apart from a handful of plucky "skeptics", everyone who posts here who is not him, is Dirac. That's three times he failed to answer the question. At least JimZ had the decency to not answer it only once. :-)
Pasper2: There are valid reasons for all of the adjustments and those reasons do not include faking or exaggerating the warming trend. I've asked before and none of those on your side could come up with ANY adjustment that was not reasonable.
Mike: 1934 was only the warmest in the USA. I don't know if that is still true or not, but it isn't particularly relevant as the USA is only around 2% of the Earth's surface.
Sidney: Surely that's just weather!
We also saw an answer from Daro; now deleted, but the gist of it was poorly sited sations and urban heat islands, I noticed he is also buying into the deluded fantasies of the troll Yahoo Joker (as is Pasper2 elsewhere) Looks like Sagebrush is actually right about something after all; if lies are repeated often enough, they will eventually be accepted as the truth! By some of those on the "skeptics" side anyway!
Better make that four from the deluded troll.
Just for fun, taking Koshka's suggestion of taking the last 12 months as the year, well the HadCRUT4 data is reasonably up to date (up to May) so, taking a 12 month running mean, puts this last 12 months in second place, behind a similar period in 2015/16.
https://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2014...
Like I said; just for fun, we'll know after the end of the year. Still no sign of that global cooling ...
My usual thanks to all who replied.
12 Answers
- Anonymous9 months agoFavourite answer
It would be surprising if it were, since not only is it not an El Nino year, but La Nina conditions are forecast for later this year. Nevertheless, it has been remarkably warm so far and if it's not the hottest year on record it will almost certainly be in the top two or three. Of course, that's something we hear more and more often these days--every decade is warmer than the one that preceded it.
Not only is global temperature high, but Arctic Sea ice as of July 15 was at its lowest level for that date, at least since satellite observations started. This year looks to be on track for the lowest Arctic sea ice ever, there's still a few months of ice melt left, so that might change. It's amazing that there are still people left that pretend the warming isn't real.
EDIT: The troll (Clown Crusher/Zany Dog/Horse/The Yahoo Joker/etc.) uses the worst "logic", for example, he says "Darwinist is a Dirac sock puppet. Dirac answered exactly 14 minutes after the question was posted. He does this all the time." So what? The troll answer 12 minutes after I did, even closer in time, so is HE a sock puppet of mine? How does the amount of time between Q&A prove ANYTHING? Once people ask a question, then others start answering it, that's the way it works. Except, of course, if you're the troll, then you block intelligent people from answering it, and only leave it open people like Daro, JimZ and the troll's own sock puppets.
- Anonymous9 months ago
Yes, when Trump wins all the dems will have steam coming out of their heads. It will be entertaining.
- 9 months ago
-It doesn't matter. There are no practical negatives to "warming." Any "warming" has been connected with benefits.
See graphic. I have documented this from peer review over the past year.
- Anonymous9 months ago
Australia it is winter time and we are in our second month of below-average temperatures
- Anonymous9 months ago
Weather is not climate.
- Anonymous9 months ago
1934 is the warmist year
- KoshkaLv 59 months ago
Suppose the year started today, last year, then we could get an answer. As usual, Dirac is right on about sea ice being lowest. It is so obviously ridiculous that he got so many TD's, perhaps most/all of them from the troll himself and his friends or the ones that live in his head.
Anyhow, it's impossible to tell now, but it is certainly within the realms of possibility. The Siberian heat wave was also a very impressive event.
@Anonymous troll, you are blatant liar and cheater. I'll say what I want when I want, you stupid troll. Also 3TD already (within 5 minutes) you are SO predictable.
- 9 months ago
Hopefully so, here in the UK, like most northern hemisphere countries, we pray for a milder climate. Fingers crossed
- DavidLv 79 months ago
Even if it's not the warmest, it will still be in the top five. And since emissions are lower this year due to COVID, get ready then for every denier blog to cite 2020's warmth as evidence against global warming being caused by CO2. They are quite predictable, you see.
- JimZLv 79 months ago
We have had a good year regarding the climate, one of the nicest ever recorded by instruments.
